{"id":49,"date":"2026-06-10T16:03:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T08:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/posts\/49\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T16:03:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T08:03:01","slug":"kelly-%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e5%90%88%e7%90%86%e4%b8%8b%e6%b3%a8%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/posts\/49\/","title":{"rendered":"Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5408\u7406\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5feb\u901f\u6458\u8981<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300aKelly \u7b56\u7565\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5408\u7406\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1f\u300b\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u8d54\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u4f7f\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u91d1\u589e\u957f\u7387\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u6700\u521d\u6765\u81ea\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\uff0c\u540e\u88ab\u5f15\u5165\u535a\u5f69\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u8861\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u8d54\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u65f6\uff0c\u6446\u8131\u76f2\u76ee\u91cd\u6ce8\u6216\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u7ed3\u5408\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u8d54\u7387\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002\u5b83\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u660e\u786e\u8d54\u7387\u4e14\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u76f8\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u4f30\u7b97\u80dc\u7387\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u8db3\u7403\u3001\u7bee\u7403\u6216\u7f51\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8f93\u5165\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u4f30\u8ba1\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7a33\u5b9a\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5206\u914d\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b56\u7565\u80cc\u666f<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u4e0e\u8d4c\u535a\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f18\u52bf\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u535a\u5f69\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d54\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5927\u4f17\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4f4d\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5f62\u6210\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u6982\u7387\u201d\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5f53\u4e2a\u4eba\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u8d54\u7387\u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u6ce8\u201d\u3002Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u5728\u5df2\u77e5\u4ef7\u503c\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u6295\u5165\u603b\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u591a\u5c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u7834\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76d8\u53e3\u53d8\u5316\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6d88\u5316\uff0cKelly \u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u76d8\u53e3\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u6295\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-risk-note\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56fe\u8868\u4e3a\u6a21\u62df\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u7b56\u7565\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large strategy-chart\"><img width=\"1200\" height=\"650\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chart_104_4_1781063958.png\" alt=\"\u51ef\u5229\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u56fe\" title=\"\u51ef\u5229\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u56fe\" class=\"wp-image-48\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chart_104_4_1781063958.png 1200w, https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chart_104_4_1781063958-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chart_104_4_1781063958-1024x555.png 1024w, https:\/\/kyappgame.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chart_104_4_1781063958-768x416.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption>\u8be5\u56fe\u8868\u4e3a\u7b56\u7565\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u62df\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u8f85\u52a9\u7406\u89e3\u6587\u7ae0\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6838\u5fc3\u6570\u636e\u903b\u8f91<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u4f9d\u8d56\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6570\u636e\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u80dc\u7387 p\u3001\u8d54\u7387 implied probability \u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u51c0\u8d54\u7387 b\uff08\u5373\u6263\u9664\u672c\u91d1\u540e\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u500d\u6570\uff09\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a f = (bp &#8211; (1-p)) \/ b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d f \u4fbf\u662f\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56fe\u8868\u4e3a\u6a21\u62df\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u7b56\u7565\u903b\u8f91\uff1a\u4ece\u56fe\u8868\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u6295\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u53d6\u503c\u4e3a 0.1\uff08\u5373\u603b\u8d44\u91d1\u7684 10%\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u9884\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a 0.5%\uff1b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u5347\u5230 0.2 \u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f3 0.8%\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7ea6 0.25 \u9644\u8fd1\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff1b\u968f\u540e\u968f\u7740\u6295\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u8d85\u8fc7\u6700\u4f18\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u52a0\u5feb\u8d44\u91d1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u957f\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u8fc7\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u65f6\u5bfc\u81f4\u9884\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u76d8\u53e3\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u578b\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u76d8\u53e3\u5224\u65ad\u65f6\uff0cKelly \u7b56\u7565\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u591a\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u5931\u6548\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u5bf9\u80dc\u7387\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u504f\u79bb\u9884\u671f\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8d54\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e34\u573a\u524d\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f24\u75c5\u3001\u9996\u53d1\u540d\u5355\u7b49\u7a81\u53d1\u4fe1\u606f\u51fa\u73b0\u5267\u70c8\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e4b\u524d\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u201c\u4ef7\u503c\u201d\u88ab\u8fc5\u901f\u62b9\u5e73\u3002\u76d8\u53e3\u5206\u6790\u9700\u8981\u7ed3\u5408 Kelly \u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\u6216\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4fbf\u4e00\u5207\u53c2\u6570\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5355\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u77ed\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9002\u7528\u573a\u666f\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8fb9\u754c<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelly \u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u7528\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u8f85\u52a9\u8d44\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u5730\u601d\u8003\u4e0b\u6ce8\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u60c5\u7eea\u5316\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5b83\u7279\u522b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u6301\u7eed\u4ea7\u751f\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u4e14\u8d54\u7387\u8f83\u4e3a\u900f\u660e\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u90e8\u5206 Kelly\u201d\uff08Fractional Kelly\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53ea\u6295\u5165 Kelly \u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u7531\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u6ce8\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u90fd\u5e94\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u6709\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u8d54\u7387\u9519\u8bef\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u901f\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5fc5\u987b\u7eb3\u5165\u98ce\u9669\u8003\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u7c7b\u535a\u5f69\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u76c8\u5229\u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p 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